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| 8 degrees of suffocation Svalbard temperatures may skyrocket by 2100, vary widely within local areas, study finds
Published May 11, 2010 Warnings that Svalbard will be far more affected by global warming than most parts of the planet are nothing new. But now scientists say some parts of the High North will be noticeably hotter than others. The average annual temperature of northeast Svalbard may rise by as much as eight degrees Celsius by the end of this century, according to a new report based on findings from more than 100 Norwegian and international researchers. The study is the last of five by the Norwegian Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (NorACIA) as part of an international project ongoing since 2005. "The really new thing about this report is it focuses on the Norwegian Arctic," said Ellen Øseth, a climate advisor at the Norwegian Polar Institute. "One of the main things in this report is if we stop emitting climate gasses tomorrow we will still have to deal with effects in this region." The estimated increase of eight degrees doesn't tell the whole story, since variations are expected by season and in neighboring areas. An average increase of five degrees is forecast for the Norwegian Arctic, with lower-end figures including a rise of one degree in coastal areas of Nordland and Troms, and two degrees in southwest Spitsbergen. Also, increases are largely to be larger during fall and winter, and inland rather than sea and coastal areas. "There are large discrepancies in how different global and regional climate models describe present and future ice conditions in the Norwegian Arctic, and the uncertainties in the Arctic climate projections are thus considerable," notes a sub-report focusing on Svalbard. Increases of 2.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius are forecast for mainland Norway by the year 2100, with coastal areas experiencing the least change and the Finnmarksvidda plateau the most. The research also details extensive environmental charges already occurring due to warming – noting Longyearbyen temperatures have risen by about two degrees Celsius since 1912 – and analyzes the future impact on precipitation, oceans, animal migration, society and other subjects. Precipitation will likely increase as well throughout the region, for example, with the largest changes again during fall and winter. "Towards the end of this century, there may be a noticeable reduction in the snow season, two months shorter per year on the coast of northern Norway and one month on Finnmarksvidda," a summary of the report states. In addition, "extreme weather in the shape of strong wind and unusual amounts of precipitation may occur more frequently."
Permafrost is thawing more rapidly than previously believed, with the rate intensifying during the past 10 years. That, along with problems such as increasing avalanches and floods, are seen as threats to northern infrastructure. But Øseth said there are no specific places in Svalbard considered vulnerable other than what's already known. "By 2075 I would probably expect problems at the airport due to permafrost thawing, but by that time the airport will need repairs for other reasons due to age," she said. Sea ice is also vanishing faster than previously thought, resulting in what will largely be large-scale threats to existing animal and plant species – along with a few positives such as more rapid growth of some fish species. "Melting of the sea ice can lead to loss of biological diversity," the summary notes, adding "Examples are ice algae which grow beneath and in the ice, seals which need ice on which to pup, polar bears which live on seals, and several species of seabirds which have much of their lifecycle associated with the ice." A range of other positive impacts, while greatly outnumbered by dire predictions, are contained in the report. Wild and agricultural plant growth might increase, for instance, but be more vulnerable to disease. Humans may be able to profit from commercial shipping and other activities sooner than expected, but will likely clash with nature, competing business interests and other cultures in the process. "Sámi occupations (reindeer husbandry, coastal fishing, farming, etc.) play important roles as pillars of Sámi culture," the report notes. "This strong interlock between occupations and culture means that changes in climate and their consequences will exert significant pressure on Sámi culture, and adaptation will be particularly challenging." Numerous recommendations at local and national levels are made in the report, although it concedes "the changes in climate in the Norwegian Arctic are first and foremost determined by greenhouse gas emissions in other regions." But Øseth said that doesn't mean Arctic can't achieve significant benefits by taking action. "That's really a dangerous way of looking at it," she said. "If people are thinking 'My contribution is so small it doesn't make any difference,' nobody will do anything." Local soot emissions may directly impact Arctic warming, the report states, although the recommendations do not specifically suggest coal mining cease in Svalbard. More aggressive policies protecting environmentally sensitive areas are also recommended, with Svalbard considering a ban on ships carrying heavy oil as one such possibility.
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